Figure 3 - Source Data 6 Parameter recovery for Model 1, with ¡°all-trials¡± mode simulation/fit Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters ¦Á1 0.0733360130680006 -0.0651782775187152 0.0401794684579841 -0.0449201436548024 0.0700735344135953 0.0328306103420378 0.0142879683031073 0.211247216360625 -0.0285013050327055 0.130728956737908 0.0356791551070414 -0.0666316780393157 0.076894227156976 -0.0589740619277212 0.060628863295282 0.114019852663627 -0.00330186093087616 0.171837625689191 -0.0131164258202988 0.0870957740684179 ¦Á2 -0.255596169815285 -0.0949161929522942 -0.100699760150193 -0.0172595999231811 -0.0766442518449809 0.119835288722938 -0.348104535213615 -0.170092933177921 -0.0848796907794952 0.0143774805125264 -0.261230333392518 -0.118426273008231 -0.064205117938155 -0.0948874367254149 0.054806778963012 0.141548253920217 -0.324748296155603 -0.157766202878362 -0.0897128876230043 -0.0491908692469369 ¦Â 0.111478073494704 0.130917289417432 0.135138476596612 0.131280553504029 0.192734926517194 0.135005469629638 0.18534415879883 0.0928718540859064 0.108036518799769 0.11463698178445 0.104585632927424 0.154317610942616 0.13708549267937 0.167424482794184 0.188050518443784 0.146119213325423 0.20615272581627 0.0765366220754988 0.100252076597818 0.131550082887992 ¦Ã1 3.74729321765074 3.39440697478537 3.12660672068519 3.49366658637738 4.24210673112835 3.82992978603061 4.4768969662556 3.85550441059961 4.24360807485042 3.90321248313698 3.77643308495231 3.4756974498243 3.13899374049306 3.57745314930242 4.29689034532855 3.92731587763869 4.36599861519448 3.95636774462561 4.33504093829498 3.80721299743383 ¦Ã2 0.264589937900011 0.326947537226228 0.250316316210206 0.292407262944582 0.431561049342169 0.22033840137497 0.477739040860631 0.118626284410923 0.305582976898707 0.114269765424831 0.275478891889331 0.394858446912093 0.204789493651462 0.367023886718573 0.372941454439639 0.197617469712538 0.510069784767288 0.122817151873675 0.27612994098029 0.18663671217802 ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Parameter recovery for Model 4, with ¡°all-trials¡± mode simulation/fit Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters ¦Â 0.0975991723186569 0.117594298378947 0.117685691994952 0.13205994911327 0.197644312185846 0.134771600775742 0.151294408091019 0.0887007859382331 0.0974529877966514 0.11649350289518 0.0826923415432382 0.117489516800406 0.149612172400738 0.135456591321082 0.212873954290447 0.166093912207083 0.159146598689787 0.0862362948461956 0.0862115410717626 0.143841941323273 ¦Ã1 3.7590210551925 3.45760615185445 3.14499684162471 3.522423709008 4.21675692583514 3.78164501801267 4.51416165246823 3.69551386144262 4.27479899172759 3.83109614356619 3.86602411187673 3.39696074687562 3.3507976510478 3.51491489207314 4.15234685342255 3.67414743364458 4.59071691195964 3.84804072510483 4.32312765558128 3.55171075525262 ¦Ã2 0.197512185866511 0.237303377265301 0.21804130897255 0.263882969434295 0.465493405339109 0.2729447489773 0.330513083811584 0.162839100212954 0.245103633257019 0.193152335213459 0.177770347568949 0.239635078338054 0.281037164615974 0.280680498936631 0.464803171185154 0.297220014523677 0.340479191747986 0.158202188211795 0.23202795154507 0.202244283626283 ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Parameter recovery for Model 1, Stable phase simulation/fit Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters ¦Á1 -0.180811487123034 0.0395144418514156 -0.0798018892649647 -0.178015557261793 -0.0279298286357967 -0.161425200447349 0.0457453404876107 0.062597334781035 -0.248013928038602 0.105010556275168 -0.174930360709073 0.0738757826401607 0.163367183107088 -0.10697022582319 -0.126738643658257 -0.0419445728911977 -0.07785836287812 -0.120169880802378 -0.0954950755192769 -0.0849598012133905 ¦Á2 -0.0814277979863749 0.188521235329382 0.0613681074899526 0.144795629367217 0.821743506677735 0.177266181309786 0.447888821296072 0.0250724370803043 0.100228406108171 0.203084183851864 -0.0967592914599993 0.0673363972971781 0.412994189569977 0.382318672880996 0.487521188419645 0.0144963525206824 0.593988265480407 -0.159529438994556 0.222905778968866 -0.058759994179197 ¦Â -0.111551128110809 0.182398603904979 -0.0412012428927988 0.0060359621259146 0.296363178272405 -0.00963975715624856 0.152117517175971 -0.019910781329367 0.0532849364274816 -0.0236860187967394 -0.145422914859516 0.212996983858687 0.311749661940639 0.152582426970086 0.238772875490467 -0.112666980169875 0.106114271060608 -0.0612140590628295 0.0969742485999288 -0.140267222751066 ¦Ã1 3.74702579780239 3.43073664705806 3.24385281200519 3.56592543252267 4.62270117587258 4.41019465199601 5.07900084537675 4.21936828832938 4.75721718899661 4.74113228104867 3.8474669755451 3.30121601882419 3.19609953052382 3.40100594225497 5.0597122613704 4.39245021066509 5.3211881108539 4.13997330026824 4.4523304894752 4.14982615554985 ¦Ã2 -0.028491589796249 0.415933376803646 -0.0123599562107701 0.178634509489895 0.791509724136437 0.117432469758882 0.400825905835092 0.0382336440671995 0.437448289580818 -0.100406665104876 -0.0828971281837574 0.495712377071682 0.462431851156621 0.33821979255035 0.743390486329788 -0.139138045550973 0.31111348042646 0.103537289626699 0.40139246794003 -0.159927859645827 ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Parameter recovery for Model 1, Switching phase simulation/fit Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters ¦Á1 0.17095562802471 -0.16890945617326 -0.0973645496381561 -0.17783987869642 0.0779650948056022 0.0941378911720357 -0.123106158169482 0.207129805734253 -0.198882345049688 -0.148922200201544 0.00712887262632079 0.0605243660819059 -0.192653024835852 -0.256021231216348 -0.0867321554584744 0.080707618602131 -0.133637165921866 0.222201503242193 -0.14682952131678 -0.153254644024101 ¦Á2 -0.156670213566274 0.246665021988644 -0.263169764736898 -0.0278333684915397 0.0863462873193768 0.260045620396478 -0.286474241921411 -0.112367180479046 -0.0742768556125232 0.11301105891588 -0.343482070202735 0.286554206346927 -0.28613364968659 -0.120454409377474 0.207716944985623 0.317873487969101 -0.213981655734172 0.130092942297591 -0.119823272947017 0.0642501018164704 ¦Â 0.104127820772919 0.262539526332381 0.280058482038014 0.123561730281988 0.256763228610773 0.0846747289802956 0.297067127269372 0.0810370363196179 0.211189030938702 0.482044371836616 0.207355222667472 0.0844754472907604 0.255439404347608 0.102807933002 0.307023346385297 0.00301959401827181 0.340937027270914 -0.00529514054266758 0.158804229887452 0.611976945664005 ¦Ã1 3.75123805690822 3.61985306912048 3.11238932813615 3.28827637458362 4.17253641968982 4.03905472361174 4.09835315458536 3.88526213455576 4.26928700826582 3.64141678904376 3.98578655302478 3.88045032173448 2.9355531408548 3.63959442710291 3.88227973101525 3.74764966124026 4.51108570987928 4.27816258354177 4.03971296690858 3.51738050127082 ¦Ã2 0.245249660182304 0.0952790443939549 0.366156670390999 0.379130800487403 0.400809402520408 0.0882217997008221 0.427674761801217 0.145762165321329 0.379791892675585 0.148269987350804 0.398167565255457 -0.0192671777138518 0.439768394721228 0.514561129814166 0.433579461137385 0.0757929998353718 0.383663136689115 0.0830954057905386 0.348358106174636 0.181612937566675 ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Parameter recovery for Model 4, Stable phase simulation/fit Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters ¦Â -0.00868133455745379 0.135104385946965 -0.0137036359543497 0.063202551033819 0.224532348734889 0.0241034554610596 0.0657928554789171 -0.0393312404109522 0.0742945950545217 -0.0722537841385087 0.0129993602482432 0.158820005272562 -0.0133244430604635 0.116002688552259 0.30005515288965 0.0982715182956384 0.0893780379925976 -0.0583940295937705 0.0221123429249349 -0.0279413119686579 ¦Ã1 3.75150178060368 3.38631591865821 3.22799711608507 3.56237664728574 4.492304512793 4.35387838438563 4.98365871101889 4.19335559722954 4.81538885887353 4.68284963304965 3.65373664961974 3.21848208056406 3.17188211451643 3.54771383862238 4.1754935681993 4.21615381789496 4.78396477937257 4.21957337046994 5.26884919662177 4.57593682748709 ¦Ã2 0.075624692926698 0.381349434302708 0.010205085467852 0.223800512732658 0.706638071981951 0.124516718048014 0.262820093229614 0.0336498376362642 0.351787257260406 -0.0948027460583188 0.121921950806779 0.380315015781104 -0.00813888937849157 0.347459748901243 0.913826306294541 0.285840490560645 0.340790507285875 -0.00949859745462133 0.224225686283898 0.0155740705664013 ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Parameter recovery for Model 4, Switching phase simulation/fit Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Generating Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters Recovered Parameters ¦Â 0.0807399313614644 0.294234614430707 0.141131480532657 0.0951341135009454 0.284994463746186 0.170664393734842 0.217994953635223 0.0931020949123803 0.132607387942483 0.446896715566438 0.109286620700526 0.342878469065243 0.0891314119819085 0.108022226767939 0.199004745987008 0.208514511087881 0.290319426110612 0.0339132826368034 0.215313635261817 0.326396344561074 ¦Ã1 3.72388588749294 3.53338672908469 3.19929568751488 3.36910567174756 4.10682353365627 3.84203446490838 4.21736456664389 3.79500252310895 4.38708222966344 3.6042719531876 3.40423762475048 3.5809124643554 3.42401899395361 3.52784831993061 3.98543366999196 4.18440204089009 4.85593392792234 3.64166399107511 3.95303521676888 3.70971216357356 ¦Ã2 0.227432735610171 0.133392339651335 0.212097825600666 0.281148876228863 0.485331924369699 0.266030362659451 0.245664813902688 0.159039830949317 0.244697768895764 0.12904318483392 0.226818492713281 0.244799197829825 0.257893041729276 0.349664503159162 0.418682095841677 0.2534031283915 0.302779473508914 0.255868549277515 0.253680590827534 0.134543796568207 ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Parameter recovery for Model 1, Stable phase stepwise simulation/fit ¦Á1: Original Recovered -1.5 -1.49145819785425 -1.4 -1.27508562547977 -1.3 -1.23116653421931 -1.2 -1.21629053570227 -1.1 -0.967830684300005 -1 -0.924020528015766 -0.9 -0.87769864683655 -0.8 -0.76999447799473 -0.7 -0.688016110055011 -0.6 -0.598513814687129 -0.5 -0.578046494755141 -0.4 -0.46341611906847 -0.3 -0.344291072170561 -0.2 -0.185152390413494 -0.0999999999999999 -0.0911274944486148 0 -0.0534988502959206 0.1 0.175799871399737 0.2 0.232951127360643 0.3 0.337888270675543 0.4 0.511814846175047 0.5 0.545656152520216 0.6 0.562525188711127 0.7 0.584965921776767 0.8 0.896554184963205 ¦Á2: Original Recovered -0.7 -0.902788506651184 -0.6 -0.629775317338296 -0.5 -0.396143397740462 -0.4 -0.354808354244878 -0.3 -0.327836154426346 -0.2 -0.282959885787389 -0.0999999999999999 -0.137642639577791 1.11022302462516e-016 0.0447760731119908 0.1 0.0917660088415477 0.2 0.239521306600144 0.3 0.35328498402332 0.4 0.353930606745785 0.5 0.389914509454945 0.6 0.419559418464206 0.7 0.708371341530632 0.8 0.928150775514066 0.9 0.956073480316457 1 1.08778950859379 1.1 1.32955557035115 1.2 1.334009242283 1.3 1.48058185686036 1.4 1.51364043903518 1.5 1.60557735664116 ¦Â: Original Recovered -0.2 -0.208194895852228 -0.1 -0.113944743867297 0 0.00398185785970948 0.1 0.0242386910767783 0.2 0.086180647336185 0.3 0.383389684254577 0.4 0.477223557517794 0.5 0.55559697263401 0.6 0.593040266681433 0.7 0.70557126837606 0.8 0.82900941026232 0.9 0.911343895177801 ¦Ã1£º Original Recovered 1 0.81717277627852 1.5 1.57608893389033 2 2.11686657189245 2.5 2.52708681735761 3 3.07947010745897 3.5 3.37217614150888 4 3.76990721655874 4.5 4.27654995692168 5 5.49641762518131 5.5 5.55270423216354 6 6.32470323754607 6.5 6.75776112167127 7 7.61692118578103 7.5 8.09437653581918 8 8.26585806898583 8.5 8.862648482155 9 9.54033534668464 9.5 10.5684313061669 10 10.8131402891308 10.5 11.0054741232944 11 11.1688063770736 11.5 11.5861720248973 12 11.96461378926 12.5 12.1758395473621 13 12.7107937867191 ¦Ã2£º Original Recovered -0.4 -0.513533286492524 -0.3 -0.243917121224776 -0.2 -0.127841957770137 -0.1 -0.0111809937408215 0 0.118679393814398 0.1 0.219195040077509 0.2 0.278460071858728 0.3 0.35899856369666 0.4 0.426170088049628 0.5 0.466146560338429 0.6 0.539464508627135 0.7 0.719029065561149 0.8 0.919705281580032 0.9 0.925580982354803 1 0.950653716893856 1.1 0.962900337718933 1.2 1.17328829013142 1.3 1.3725103795496 1.4 1.40488423016382 1.5 1.69526594462807 ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Parameter recovery for Model 1, Switching phase stepwise simulation/fit ¦Á1: Original Recovered -1.5 -1.83302279172516 -1.4 -1.58134884234 -1.3 -1.34808898773302 -1.2 -1.17341613198776 -1.1 -1.04408375980154 -1 -1.03160424196028 -0.9 -1.00409575312414 -0.8 -0.76339729934471 -0.7 -0.763082206830444 -0.6 -0.650294298783244 -0.5 -0.649055912837799 -0.4 -0.561542059952536 -0.3 -0.330292258807711 -0.2 -0.319973442313242 -0.0999999999999999 -0.159729950395178 0 -0.0680038532530624 0.1 0.0684664094773644 0.2 0.213017406384953 0.3 0.380573464742184 0.4 0.440400009762498 0.5 0.463221067248399 0.6 0.640440372184446 0.7 0.797429982814996 0.8 0.931297044834946 ¦Á2: Original Recovered -0.7 -0.707481642773107 -0.6 -0.624579623244904 -0.5 -0.592069611219798 -0.4 -0.496771136377581 -0.3 -0.262931551611117 -0.2 -0.260065444990863 -0.0999999999999999 -0.0727997978373759 1.11022302462516e-016 -0.00465822844136152 0.1 0.0824213459074147 0.2 0.0937645680095036 0.3 0.356288807614069 0.4 0.457952328795777 0.5 0.491472330570897 0.6 0.605606580888292 0.7 0.664574708398511 0.8 0.729427063002459 0.9 0.816374201131743 1 1.09633374802206 1.1 1.11462458186782 1.2 1.23341151994864 1.3 1.34695098908929 1.4 1.47928507973927 1.5 1.55791667217138 ¦Â: Original Recovered -0.2 -0.208380246642549 -0.1 -0.084788510457473 0 -0.0225838768955751 0.1 0.139998756781704 0.2 0.20722557107211 0.3 0.208018243500899 0.4 0.503484634826447 0.5 0.504642356906113 0.6 0.59501227290142 0.7 0.600312644188019 0.8 0.767374782570192 0.9 0.926239651819737 ¦Ã1£º Original Recovered 1 1.03334125860902 1.5 1.27466775439814 2 2.147904747095 2.5 2.24732089779474 3 2.94001210643726 3.5 3.25339439946359 4 4.05100438607645 4.5 4.10544430658372 5 5.04965305651618 5.5 5.78273700019914 6 5.94460176608494 6.5 7.18061901522791 7 7.20255416576941 7.5 8.10482290423063 8 8.75736859862117 8.5 9.46018905302425 9 9.75593373799762 9.5 9.81327046545209 10 10.0939024898107 10.5 10.2555356328882 11 10.2567338212784 11.5 10.394228569825 12 10.7399222147846 12.5 11.7092015388791 13 11.9144165444503 ¦Ã2£º Original Recovered -0.4 -0.407881366343307 -0.3 -0.23279334752403 -0.2 -0.165031664870705 -0.1 -0.0389067218528418 0 -0.0214026502701554 0.1 -0.00677552196556539 0.2 0.0714860440199818 0.3 0.271338226209203 0.4 0.42125453932501 0.5 0.556776746697829 0.6 0.579606803489493 0.7 0.667772641132388 0.8 0.793986944760546 0.9 0.878486504058613 1 1.06359380618333 1.1 1.0942319502487 1.2 1.12943151701968 1.3 1.15459200813192 1.4 1.50964219043188 1.5 1.63490635698918 ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Parameter recovery for Model 4, Stable phase stepwise simulation/fit ¦Â: Original Recovered -0.2 -0.212807608793923 -0.1 -0.1297464171798 0 0.0298165578683615 0.1 0.0784729569069994 0.2 0.195961236606403 0.3 0.211312889826155 0.4 0.355841738551211 0.5 0.468966753878289 0.6 0.471698145907314 0.7 0.549463725302072 0.8 0.769735984568964 0.9 0.895212376618788 ¦Ã1£º Original Recovered 1 1.01487836281008 1.5 1.66385040152764 2 1.80770067658797 2.5 2.52494784734575 3 2.97013819327576 3.5 3.37940872799313 4 3.98954849610151 4.5 4.38802106843925 5 4.90068452638493 5.5 6.01998139994092 6 6.07889792406356 6.5 6.14005464262312 7 6.38185457665845 7.5 7.49358075289304 8 7.91034822806717 8.5 8.43002741282539 9 9.24664829607013 9.5 9.7764778098997 10 10.3362657060357 10.5 10.502343603605 11 10.664572454652 11.5 10.9271119638686 12 12.5053555587248 12.5 12.5771171531545 13 12.6291953238225 ¦Ã2£º Original Recovered -0.4 -0.374694336503319 -0.3 -0.355950248256302 -0.2 -0.203311426382558 -0.1 -0.153425620243502 0 0.0782802884635818 0.1 0.0879247881070227 0.2 0.148753738474408 0.3 0.272117222141536 0.4 0.274500607316298 0.5 0.57928895226595 0.6 0.728548126062334 0.7 0.739222518938123 0.8 0.74420174412076 0.9 0.815667952652776 1 0.82521969725578 1.1 1.18040332269633 1.2 1.26024271576889 1.3 1.29575639654991 1.4 1.35718513918685 1.5 1.38499586259509 ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Parameter recovery for Model 4, Switching phase stepwise simulation/fit ¦Â: Original Recovered -0.2 -0.200346939712033 -0.1 -0.127551230516794 0 0.016060966611197 0.1 0.143727350120963 0.2 0.165434737508699 0.3 0.321058563210904 0.4 0.369699429150821 0.5 0.446396381676553 0.6 0.580952897191396 0.7 0.72582096845721 0.8 0.730930100419257 0.9 0.877227644826724 ¦Ã1£º Original Recovered 1 1.17109050338527 1.5 1.41682028663974 2 1.98189553360837 2.5 2.40744139336658 3 2.87007308087432 3.5 3.50226092478582 4 3.69058658035634 4.5 4.72085424390874 5 5.21730725707422 5.5 5.67621123111258 6 6.17435279342667 6.5 6.20760416612618 7 6.612710772891 7.5 8.25770784104271 8 8.31864684135898 8.5 8.49479235970564 9 9.11822332379822 9.5 10.0405813904273 10 10.3492402541729 10.5 11.5900455225927 11 11.8520556696947 11.5 11.8869034810079 12 11.9989418809755 12.5 12.1215887363237 13 12.1542717338522 ¦Ã2£º Original Recovered -0.4 -0.519469054434232 -0.3 -0.267443244671769 -0.2 -0.16886219421143 -0.1 0.0172914002151598 0 0.0276885226813138 0.1 0.0727905015252069 0.2 0.179059208108014 0.3 0.382843170367817 0.4 0.396975292318008 0.5 0.458759986709838 0.6 0.558246480432824 0.7 0.746477683040687 0.8 0.805810742027361 0.9 0.982568258036822 1 0.996986451657952 1.1 1.19347101517394 1.2 1.25720225176926 1.3 1.28222575555416 1.4 1.30026841417815 1.5 1.61077569321828